Eastern CPP Market Report

Singapore MR vessel supply count in the seven-day ahead window is 27 ships against a 90-day average of 23. The Freight Supply & Demand (FSD) model forecasts TC7 to ease marginally from WS 380 to WS 377 into the 2–11 May load window. Far East MR supply tells a similar story: the TC11 prompt window stands at 8 ships against a 90-day moving average of 4, with the FSD model forecasting rates to soften from $24.55/mt to $22.33/mt over the same period.

Both markets have seen vessel counts build materially week-on-week, reversing the tightness that characterized the region through mid-April. The vessel supply signal across Southeast Asia and the Far East is now mildly bearish.

The demand picture is more nuanced. The Australia resupply trade continues to absorb meaningful tonnage from both loading regions, with several cargoes fixing from Ulsan, and Singapore for Australian discharge at rates in the high WS 370s to high WS 380s over the last week.

Oriental Greenstone was placed on subs loading Ulsan for Australia at WS 385, Grand Winner was placed on subs loading Korea for Australia at WS 387.5, and Hafnia Mikala fully fixed loading Korea for Australia at the same rate. Chang Hang Fei Yue fully fixed loading Singapore for Australia at WS 380 and Chang Hang Kai Tuo followed on the same routing at WS 380.

Atlas T fully fixed loading Ulsan for Singapore at $1m lumpsum and Atlantic T fully fixed loading Singapore for West Coast Mexico at $2.8m lumpsum, confirming that non-Australia demand flows remain active across the region.

Singapore export arbs are fluctuating between open and shut as a structural feature of the current market, reflecting the Hormuz closure’s disruption to AG product supply rather than weak demand. Singapore to Dar-es-Salaam diesel is open in May by $1/bbl before closing in subsequent months, and Singapore to Rosarito gasoline is marginally open in May and July.

Ulsan to Singapore diesel arb is open all the way through August pricing and by greater than $1.50/bbl. The more constructive flow story remains the Australia pull, where the Hormuz closure has made USGC and Asian product the marginal supply source for the Pacific market.

With tonnage lists replenished on both routes and FSD models pointing to modest softening, the near-term rate direction is lower. The floor is provided by the sustained Australia cargo demand, which is keeping fixture activity healthy and preventing a sharper correction.

Owners should expect to concede some ground from recent highs as the additional tonnage is absorbed, but the structural Australia demand dynamic limits the downside. Charterers are better placed this week than last and can pick the vessel of their choosing.