De-escalation and the Freight Trade
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since February 2026, the largest maritime trade disruption in decades.
A ceasefire framework is now in place. The market is reading that as a freight bear story: risk premium fades, rates sell off, done.
That’s wrong.
De-escalation moves through phases, and the sequencing between them is where the trade is.
Michael Ryan, Freight Commodity Owner, has just published a report breaking down what happens next across VLCC, LR2, and MR segments: which routes reprice first, where the fleet is sitting right now relative to where it needs to be, and the window between the paper move and the physical squeeze that the market hasn’t priced yet.
If you’re trading or chartering anything that touches AG, the Gulf, or USGC, this is built for you.
Real time alerts, set to your specifications
Continue reading
Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22