China is key to displaced Russian oil’s impact on global prices
“If anybody can do it, it’s the Chinese.” said Neil Crosby, an analyst at Sparta Commodities SA. “But if Trump starts to say he’s going to target China over Russian oil purchases, what is it worth to the Chinese to have a bit more Russian oil? I’m not sure.”
Bloomberg, August 8, 2025 – US pressure on India to curb Russian oil purchases could displace around 1.7M b/d, with China emerging as the most likely buyer but limited to absorbing 400–700k b/d of Urals due to demand, refinery fit, and political considerations. Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby noted, “If anybody can do it, it’s the Chinese,” but questioned whether the political cost would be worth it, as failure to place the barrels could lift global oil prices by $10–$20/bbl.
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