Market Outlook
Americas Chart Pack May 2026
Published22 MAY 26 - 12:33
Reading time
minutes
Sparta’s Chart Packs are ready-made collections of charts that highlight key commodity market moves, giving traders a fast, visual snapshot of what matters without building charts themselves.
Monthly Americas Chart Pack: May 2026
US stocks are drawing hard. Here’s what traders need to watch.
With US total refined product inventories 11,900 mbbl below seasonal norms year-on-year, the USGC is operating as the world’s barrel of last resort as summer demand accelerates. This month’s Americas pack maps the arb flows, spread signals, and freight conditions shaping every major product market from Houston to the Far East.
Key takeaways:
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- RBOB/HO spread narrows
USGC gasoline stocks are drawing as peak summer demand arrives, pushing the transatlantic arb negative for June ARA blenders and setting up a mid-summer HOU export recovery into LATAM. - WTI retains Far East competitiveness
Japan and Korea are diversifying away from Middle Eastern barrels toward WTI in the medium cracking tranche; China remains excluded by 10% import tariffs. - Diesel closing in on minimum workable levels
Despite a brief EIA reprieve, USGC distillate stocks continue to draw, with arbs open to NWE, MED, WAF, and LATAM and HOGO positioned to strengthen as RVO gains hold. - Jet exports at record highs, but ceiling visible
USGC Jet 54 has traded at a negative differential to HO swaps since May, sustaining record export volumes to Europe, Singapore, and Latin America; yield shifts at global refineries may put a ceiling on this before long. - Refined product export ban is the key tail risk
If implemented, the impact on diesel would be most outsized, likely collapsing HO spreads, cracks, and HOGO while triggering a sharp unwind across RBOB, RBBR, and transatlantic arbs.
- RBOB/HO spread narrows
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Distillates strength pulls further ahead after a short breather, as tightness looms ahead; jet looks...
Diesel arbs into Europe are mostly closed despite the recent upturn in pricing. Meanwhile Jet arbs East-West are much more favourable. Further weakness in SG10 E/W and in NWE Jet CIF diffs likely.
14 AUG 26 - 08:08
Atlantic Basin looks to hold naphtha, giving support to MOPJ premiums
Marginal Med arbs and a shut Rotterdam–Chiba keep naphtha in the Atlantic Basin, with Brazil the stronger outlet and MOPJ risk building into Q4.
14 AUG 26 - 07:22