Asian Aug product cracks coming off but from recent highs
- Product cracks graph on continuous rolling front month basis shows a big drop when we moved into August.
- However, strong backwardation structure across all the products show how tight the markets are.
- Historical cracks for SG 10 against Brent show we are already at extreme levels.
- China’s exports in August are anticipated to be significantly lower than July, likely to see only government-to-government exports on diesel.
- Given likely lower run rates from end Aug/early Sep due to delays in the crude programme from the Bab el-Mandeb worries, upside for Sep Sing product cracks from current levels is in the cards.
(Singapore product cracks against Brent on C01 basis)
(Crude and Singapore product timespreads)
(Seasonals for SG 10 / Brent crack)
About the Author
June Goh | Senior Oil Analyst, Sparta Commodities
June is a senior oil market analyst at Sparta specialising in global crude trade flows and refining economics across Asia and Europe. Her analysis is regularly cited by Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and Reuters. With a significant following in the energy community on X (@JuneGoh_Sparta), June’s insights are a staple for institutional traders navigating regional market shifts.
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