Asia Middle Distillates – Pricing Analyst Update (4–11 Sep)

• Singapore physical middle distillates turned more bullish on escalating Middle East supply risk: Houthi forces advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast toward the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, and a drone strike forced Saudi Arabia to shut its east-west crude pipeline to Yanbu.
• Traders are also bracing for possibly lighter October exports from China: quota holders may struggle to restock products domestically via independent “teapot” refiners, whose Iranian crude intake has been squeezed by intensified US strikes off Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal.
• Beijing’s next signals are the key watch items — whether product exports keep facing no destination restrictions in October, and whether a rumoured third quota batch is released.
• Russian diesel supply stays constrained: Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit refineries, and Moscow remains reluctant to repair damaged units for fear of repeat attacks, so no near-term recovery is expected.
• Gasoil: Singapore 10ppm jumped $25.89/bbl w/w to $191.91/bbl (11 Sep); cash differentials firmed $0.23/bbl to $4.14/bbl, cushioned by prompt September cargoes released from China.
• Jet fuel: cash differentials eased $0.69/bbl to $0.17/bbl on the same Chinese cargo relief plus softer shoulder-season demand, even as the flat price climbed $24.36/bbl to $188.11/bbl on the same Middle East/Russia supply risk.

About the Author
Carrie Ho | Senior Pricing Analyst, Sparta Commodities
Carrie Ho, Senior Pricing Analyst at Sparta, brings nearly 15 years of experience across global energy and metals markets, with a particular focus on oil and LNG benchmarks. Before joining Sparta, Carrie was Associate Journalism Director at OPIS by Dow Jones, where she led energy and commodities coverage and honed her understanding of how political and economic forces drive market structure and price dynamics. She now applies this expertise to Sparta’s pricing assessments, helping clients navigate increasingly complex physical and derivatives markets.
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