Asia Gasoline — Pricing Analyst Update (4-11 Sep).

• Asia’s physical gasoline market turned sharply bullish, even as peak summer demand has passed.
• A supply shock drove the move: Saudi Arabia shut its East–West pipeline to Yanbu (a Red Sea mogas export hub) after drone damage, while Houthi forces expanded their hold on Yemen’s Red Sea coast toward the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint.
• Singapore 92 Ron flat price jumped $20.31/bl w/w to $143.55/bl on 11 Sep; cash differentials rose $1.81/bl w/w to $6.81/bl.
• Added support: worries that China will cut clean-product exports in October, as quota holders may struggle to restock from independent “teapot” refiners. Teapots are short of Iranian crude following the US naval blockade along the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian tanker attacks near Kharg Island.
• Global October gasoline supply already faces a squeeze as refiners favour middle distillates for their fatter cracks — notably in South Korea, which is also capped at last October’s output level.
• With Middle East barrels curtailed and China picking up more crude, traders are questioning whether swing supplier India can secure enough feedstock, potentially forcing it to limit mogas and reformate output. Firm East African demand is already pulling cargoes away from Asian markets.
• Separately, there are fears of outages at US refineries which have been running hard during this hurricane season — though this year’s storm count is expected to be lower.
• Russia’s gasoline market remains in a domestic supply crunch, driven by Ukrainian drone damage to refineries, and reduced refining availability.

About the Author
Carrie Ho | Senior Pricing Analyst, Sparta Commodities
Carrie Ho, Senior Pricing Analyst at Sparta, brings nearly 15 years of experience across global energy and metals markets, with a particular focus on oil and LNG benchmarks. Before joining Sparta, Carrie was Associate Journalism Director at OPIS by Dow Jones, where she led energy and commodities coverage and honed her understanding of how political and economic forces drive market structure and price dynamics. She now applies this expertise to Sparta’s pricing assessments, helping clients navigate increasingly complex physical and derivatives markets.
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