Market Outlook
Press

Asia expected to sustain Russian oil flows at slower pace after US sanctions

Cross BarrelCrudeDistillateFreightFuel OilGasolineJetNaphtha
Analyst briefsChart packsDeep divesEventsOpinionsPodcastsPressWebinarsWhitepapers
Published04 DEC 25 - 10:58 Reading time  minutes
“Before the US tariffs were enacted, China was importing about 200,000 b/d of US crude, mainly WTI. Now, we are not seeing any flow of WTI to China,” Goh said. “As a result of that, WTI is now going to new markets in Asia. It is going to Vietnam, and Pakistan took its first barrels of oil a few months ago.”

“On top of that, we have seen a trade deal — Indonesia is building 17 modular refineries and will take in US crude as a design crude in the coming future. So, if not for the tariffs, these changes in crude flows would not have happened.”

S&P Global, Dec 3, 2025 – Asia will keep buying Russian crude but at a slower pace as sanctions push India and China toward non-sanctioned sellers and alternative suppliers. Russian flows won’t disappear, but tightening restrictions and shifting trade routes — including redirected US crude — are reshaping Asian barrels. With China stockpiling, India’s demand rising, and more global supply coming online, traders should watch for softening Russian flows and a potential oversupplied market heading into 2026.

Author

June Goh

Senior Oil Market Analyst

Rate this article

Average rating / 5. Vote count:

No votes so far! Be the first to rate this post.

Continue reading

  • New
  • Deep dive
  • Crude

Time for physical to shine

Lack of deal breakthrough should see global refining step out to buy up barrels.

11 MAY 26 - 13:01

  • New
  • Analyst brief
  • Crude

The calm in physical won’t last forever

Plenty market chatter about the incredible weak state of crude diffs with North Sea almost below...

08 MAY 26 - 13:01

  • New
  • Analyst brief
  • Freight

MR ballaster build: supply pressure mounting across key regions

MR ballaster counts have risen sharply over the past two weeks, with the most pronounced moves in...

08 MAY 26 - 10:01

  • New
  • Analyst brief
  • Cross Barrel

Week 17 Pricing Analyst Update – Nadia Riaz – AG – Cross Barrel

Refined oil prices across the Arab Gulf continued to rise as escalating tensions between the US and...

08 MAY 26 - 09:48

subscribe_cta_image

Real time alerts, set to your specifications

Subscribe