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Asia expected to sustain Russian oil flows at slower pace after US sanctions

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Published04 DEC 25 - 10:58 Reading time  minutes
“Before the US tariffs were enacted, China was importing about 200,000 b/d of US crude, mainly WTI. Now, we are not seeing any flow of WTI to China,” Goh said. “As a result of that, WTI is now going to new markets in Asia. It is going to Vietnam, and Pakistan took its first barrels of oil a few months ago.”

“On top of that, we have seen a trade deal — Indonesia is building 17 modular refineries and will take in US crude as a design crude in the coming future. So, if not for the tariffs, these changes in crude flows would not have happened.”

S&P Global, Dec 3, 2025 – Asia will keep buying Russian crude but at a slower pace as sanctions push India and China toward non-sanctioned sellers and alternative suppliers. Russian flows won’t disappear, but tightening restrictions and shifting trade routes — including redirected US crude — are reshaping Asian barrels. With China stockpiling, India’s demand rising, and more global supply coming online, traders should watch for softening Russian flows and a potential oversupplied market heading into 2026.

Author

June Goh

Senior Oil Analyst

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