Market Outlook

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Deep diveGasoline

Cracks set to rally in winter

Deep Dive Summary: RBOB: Nov TA arb presents an interesting opportunity, though it fails to act as a solver as supply risk to PADD 3 refining has emerged. EBOB: Remain bullish EBOB Oct/Nov spread. No

Cross Barrel Crude Diesel Distillate Freight Fuel Oil Gasoline Jet Naphtha

Analyst briefs Chart packs Deep dives Events Opinions Podcasts Press Webinars Whitepapers

Analyst Briefs

China product exports resume

09 OCT 26 - 08:28

Singapore regrade swings from floor to near 10-year highs in a fortnight on diesel weakness and China quota confusion; bullish European regrade, bearish Singapore regrade post-Golden Week

08 OCT 26 - 15:09

TC2 paper is pricing a Q4 that the arbs do not currently support

07 OCT 26 - 10:55

The widely anticipated return of China from Golden Week

07 OCT 26 - 09:10

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Deep Dives

Cracks set to rally in winter

Supply risk builds across the Atlantic Basin and Asia as blending and refining margins turn negative.

09 OCT 26 - 12:10

Naphtha breaks higher while gasoline corrects, and the gas-nap pays for it

Freight is the obstacle between Asian demand and Western barrels

09 OCT 26 - 10:10

Bearish short term on ICE GO whilst bullish now on jet and bullish Q1 diesel

Despite SPR releases and non-export bans in the US and China, we remain bullish diesel and jet into Q1 (medium term)

08 OCT 26 - 12:54

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Chart Packs

APAC Chart Pack October 2026

05 OCT 26 - 14:06

EMEA Chart Pack September 2026

23 SEP 26 - 12:30

Americas Chart Pack September 2026

18 SEP 26 - 14:16

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Podcast: Hormuz exports are back near pre-war levels. But the military escalations haven’t stopped.

07 OCT 26 | 33 mins 41 secs

Podcast: ICE gasoil cracks remain over $85/bbl. China’s export ban cuts deep

01 OCT 26 | 25 mins 39 secs

Podcast: A diesel ban looms. HOGO reacts. Freight markets in limbo.

24 SEP 26 | 35 mins 2 secs

Podcast: Saudi’s pipeline is down. Every barrel funnels back through Hormuz.

17 SEP 26 | 33 mins 41 secs

Podcast: Houthis seize Mocha. Brent breaks $100. What now?

11 SEP 26 | 33 mins 41 secs

Podcast: Kirishi’s hit, Hormuz is live again: diesel has nowhere left to hide

03 SEP 26 | 39 mins 48 secs

Opinion View all

The Iran war and oil markets: the Hormuz question

The Iran war and oil markets: the Hormuz question Part 3 of a Series March 29, 2026 Felipe Elink...

30 MAR 26 - 07:59

The Iran war and oil markets: what comes next

16 MAR 26 - 09:21

Real time alerts, set to your specifications

Whitepapers View all

De-escalation and the Freight Trade

Positioning ahead of the competition as Middle East risk premium unwinds, and why the sequencing of what happens next is the actual trade.

01 JUL 26 - 13:07

Trading Energy Futures Arbs-Driven ICE GO Futures Time Spread Forecasting

05 MAY 25 - 07:46

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From Market Signals to Strategy: Oil Insights in Focus

Singapore | 07 Jul 26

Summer drinks – co-hosted by Sparta and S&P

23 Jun 26

Sparta’s in town for CERA week

Houston | March 23, 2026

From Data to Decisions: How Databento and Sparta are Transforming Commodity Markets

Online | July 8, 2025

Cutting Through the Noise: The challenge in accessing real-time pricing

Online | April 29, 2025

Fuel Oil Focus: Cracks, refinery margins, and debunking ECA myths

Online | March 12, 2025

Webinars View all

Sparta Insights Webinar: Where’s the fuel oil arb today?

Sparta Insights Webinar: Where’s the fuel oil arb today? June Goh and Jay Maroo co-present this...

04 AUG 26 - 07:57

Sparta Insights Webinar: 2026 outlook for the oil market

Catch our first webinar of the year where Sparta experts Neil Crosby, Michael Ryan, June Goh and James Noel-Beswick dove into the key trends shaping the oil markets in 2026, with more OPEC, Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan barrels reshaping diffs and supporting complex refining margins amid limited new capacity and US West Coast tightening.

29 APR 26 - 13:43

Press View all

Oil swings with focus on deep Saudi price cut and Yemen fighting

China fuel export suspension to choke supplies in Asia

VIEW Chinese refiners suspend October fuel exports, sources say

Asia May weather tight global diesel market better than Europe

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Sparta

Verified account @spartacommo ·

1 Oct

China has banned fuel exports.

Simultaneously diesel stocks are collapsing and refinery outages are spreading.

This week on Trade with Conviction, @JuneGoh_Sparta, James Noel-Beswick & Jorge Molinero break down the supply crisis gripping global markets and what it means for

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Sparta

Verified account @spartacommo ·

1 Oct

Long ICE Gasoil and Short HO, therefore Short the HOGO. Invalidate above $28.78.

Leonidas AI hands you the full call, reasoning attached, and flags what you're missing before you do.

Dig deeper, or ask to build the alert. You pick the tenor and threshold, it does the rest.

See

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Cracks set to rally in winter

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