USGC DPP Market Report: TD25 steadies and TD22 extends rally

Spot TD25 to hold in the low 160s WS amid balanced supply and RBIS, while TD22 remains bullish with zero prompt VLCC availability.

TD25: The spot freight RBI is neutral at –$0.26/mt, while Nov and Dec TD25 RBIs remain overvalued at +$2.94/mt (+13 WS). Spot WTI barrels continue to land competitively into NWE, reflected in a –$1.21/bbl RBI, though WTI now faces tougher competition from increasingly cheaper WAF FOB grades such as Agbami and Qua Iboe. USGC Aframax supply is balanced with 14 open vessels (14-day, 14-avg).

Spot TD25 rates strengthened by 10 WS points to close last week, narrowing the spread to Nov & Dec paper. The overall spot freight picture is neutral, supported by competitive WTI but offset by neutral freight RBI signals and steady Aframax counts. Spot rates likely top out in the low 160s WS, while Nov and Dec paper remain overvalued by roughly 13 WS points, implying a fair value near 167 WS and a flatter TD25 curve ahead.

Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.

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