US turnarounds, cold weather, closed arbs maintain bullish momentum but peak feels imminent
Commentary summary:
• AG/WCI jet points West, but diesel still East and the USGC TA arb remains closed & low volume.
• ICE GO and HO spreads continue to move up whilst ICE GO cracks, HO cracks, European jet spreads & cracks and the Singapore middle distillate complex find a ceiling.
• Highest level of Europe to US middle distillate exports in over 2 years earlier in this year.
• We continue to feel that the reopening of both AG/WCI diesel arbs and USGC TA diesel arbs to Europe will mark the ceiling in ICE GO and HO spreads & cracks in March.
Singapore’s middle distillate markets have softened in line with expectations, with both diesel and jet cracks and spreads declining over the past week.
James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.
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