US election & Middle East likely to whipsaw crude markets this week
4 November 2024
Time to read: minutes
Commentary summary:
- Physical crude is not signalling a broad recovery yet with North Sea and MEG premia weakening while Black Sea has partly recovered from very weak levels.
- WTI is pricing a little more competitively into global export markets, but this signal is not yet strong.
- MEG OSPs expected lower, justified by their poor competitiveness in key regions.
- Global crude appetite doesn’t appear higher despite seasonal upside expected.
Flat prices contended with a series of headlines last week, including Israel/Iran, OPEC+’s announcement of a delay to planned December hikes in supply (not a surprise to some). US elections and Chinese decisions this week on additional stimulus are sure to whipsaw flat prices which may stretch physical arb signals temporarily.
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