US drawing stocks, closed arbs to Europe and EU and Asian maintenance all lead us to maintain a bullish view on global middle distillates

Commentary summary:

• AG/WCI diesel arb margins continue to favour East (those of jet point West) whilst the USGC TA diesel arb remains shut on the back drawing US diesel stocks.

• Global middle distillate cracks continue to gain whilst diesel spreads are slightly more flat but all remain backwardated until Q3 2025.

• The number of vessels transiting via the Suez canal remains stable despite faltering Middle East peace talks.

• Dangote refinery has exported a large number of jet cargoes to the US in recent weeks and is set to run at full capacity in April.

• The first stages of Russian, Ukrainian and US peace talks are taking place currently.

• We remain largely bullish from here; the end of European and Asian turnarounds in April/May still appears to be key.

James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.