Uncertainty reigns as market hesitant to follow increasingly bullish signals

Commentary summary:

• Pull on the famously well-stocked ARA market should be strong, but it may be another week or two before inventories get to levels that tempt players back into the market

• Tariff uncertainty isn’t helping – tariff clauses are being added to cargoes in to US to allow parties to unwind at short notice if tariffs are applied

• Call for EBOB spreads to recovery over the last couple of weeks played out, but we’ve likely found at least a temporary ceiling for now as EBOB blending is back on the menu

• Further gas-nap widening is pointing to expectations of a tighter octane market later in Q2, but a similar widening in Sing92/MOPJ spreads have also brought Sing back into contention for supplying the Pacific Coast as well as Pakistan/Saudi Arabia

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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