The new round of disruptions pushes Asian naphtha tightness to new extremes

Commentary summary: 

– E/W has widened to around +$80/mt for April, highlighting the need for more Western barrels into Asia.

– TC14 and TC15 roughly doubling since the start of the conflict yet arbitrage still works.

– NWE premiums are at their highest since May 2025, while NWE to Asia arb remains open on paper.

– West to East flows is increasing, including higher shipments from Europe to Japan and more Russian barrels into Taiwan and Korea. But not even close to narrow the gap with the loss of AG supply.

Fresh attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East have further tightened an already stressed naphtha market. The reported strike on South Pars is particularly significant for naphtha markets because condensate from the field underpins a meaningful share of Asian feedstock supply.

At a time when the market was already struggling with reduced availability from the Gulf, the attack has added a new geopolitical premium to a system that had very little buffer left.

The latest disruptions across the region have reinforced the sense that even alternative supply side solutions remain vulnerable, keeping buyers focused on security of supply and spreading the rumours of further export bans and political intervention.

The April MOPJ crack has moved above $8/mt, the highest seasonal value ever recorded for this contract, after a strong upward run over the past ten days.

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