The inventory mirage: WTI’s global discount spells a USGC drain ahead
Commentary summary:
• WTI pricing at steep discounts globally despite recent USGC inventory builds – export arbs wide open across Atlantic and Pacific basins.
• USGC exports languishing below 3 mb/d for two consecutive weeks, but relative pricing suggests this won’t last.
• AG spot differentials cooling only modestly post-OPEC+ decision – market seemingly unimpressed by promised August barrels.
• Diesel margins continue their moonshot, dragging flat price back above $70/bbl for first time since Iran-Israel flare-up.
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