The H2 bear market – where do we stand?
Commentary summary:
• Will key OPEC+ players really export at max post-summer burn?
• Exports to market are controllable and flat price is an issue that has already set rebalancing factors into motion this year (e.g. China).
It’s fair to fair to say the narrative that 2025 would be very long starting from Q1 has been somewhat dispelled by now, but there are still consensus expectations that this will show up in the next two quarters.
Flat price already partly reflects this (defying still what is a tight prompt market in crude and products).
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