The H2 bear market revisited – we might be there already ex-geopolitics
Commentary summary:
• US commercial oil stocks are massively building still when they should be drawing.
• Physical crude is seeing little support from India’s deeper forays into spot market.
• Curveball remains the elusive peace deal which has driven pricing downward in recent days and on which prices seem very relaxed indeed.
Flat price is evidently not a great indicator of the state of physical oil but its action in recent days serves to indicate the market’s very relaxed view of ongoing geopolitical stories.
If we don’t get the immediate peace deal this week, pricing might well be primed to the upside at least temporarily and that would likely drag up spreads with it from a reasonably weak 50c currently.
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