The Fog of (Trade) War
Commentary summary:
• Flat price appears to have stabilised following the ‘Liberation Day’ calamity, but at a level that speaks volumes about the market’s view on potential demand fallout.
• Trade war frictions continue to weigh on WTI, as retaliatory tariffs, and likely more policy uncertainty to come, force it to price far more competitively than usual.
• North Sea grades are broadly looking marginally uncompetitive at current levels within the NWE market.
Market participants are likely still reeling from the whiplash of following US trade policy over the past few weeks. While it appears the Trump administration has stepped back from the brink, considerable uncertainty still looms, reflected in the new base level that flat price seems to have found in the low $60s.
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