The EBOB complex rebounds on Dangote issue, but will it be enough to sustain an upward trend in the medium term?

Commentary summary:

• A leak in Nigeria’s catalytic cracker drove bullish sentiment in Europe, boosting EBOB spreads and cracks.

• Reformate, MX, and toluene prices hit new year-to-date highs, tightening European pricing.

• February E/W values rebounded after a $2/bbl drop the week before. Weak refining margins in the East keep suggesting that market could become tighter in Feb.

• The TA arb dropped by over 5 cpg since mid-January, currently reaching historical lows at 2 cpg.

Last week, our analysis focused on the sharp correction seen in the E/W, where February values had dropped by almost $2/bbl in recent sessions, despite fundamentals pointing in the opposite direction.

Jorge Molinero is a Commodity Owner at Sparta. Starting his career as a financial analyst with BBVA, Jorge quickly transitioned to market intelligence within the energy sector, spending 4 years as a naphtha analyst with Repsol before joining Sparta in early 2023.

Sparta is a live, market intelligence and forecasting platform that enables oil traders, refiners, banks, hedge funds and wholesalers to have access to real-time and global actionable insights to capture market opportunities before others.

To find out how Sparta can allow you to make smarter trading decisions, faster, contact us for a demonstration at sales@spartacommodites.com