Tariffs (possibly) set for tonight; MEG premiums cool

3 February 2025 Time to read:  minutes

Commentary summary:

– WCS diffs likely to adjust down and largely price into US refining.

– Mexican crude to presumably redirect to Europe, Asia, USG pulls in alternative seaborne.

– MEG premia cool a bit more rapidly following resumption of Eastern trading.

– EFS has risen solidly, and that combined with lower MEG premia are moving arb econs into more “normal” territory.

– Oman spot cracking margins have moved up substantially off the zero mark hit in the last week of January.

At the time of writing, tariffs are set to come into place tonight on Mexico and Canada, albeit at least on the Canadian side less steep than potentially feared. There are still chances for a reprieve, pending conversations between leaders today.

 

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