Strong recovery in naphtha markets amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia

Commentary summary:

• Timespreads are seeing a strong rebound while E/W spread has reached new highs, climbing over $35/mt for the November contract.

• India faces the largest direct impact, as roughly half of its imports come from Russian product.

• Taiwan may also experience supply tightening, while China could benefit from larger discounts on non-sanctioned cargoes.

• Short-term support is likely to persist, but high valuations and bearish demand fundamentals could trigger corrections into Q1 2026.

Strong rebound in naphtha timespreads following the new wave of sanctions on Russian companies over the past few hours.

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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