Spreads sink down past 2025 norms

Commentary summary:

• More fair value than prior months to have NWE pricing out imports

• Some additional flow might nonetheless now be pushed from the USG with stocks there piling up

• Supply has reacted to high price and it will take some weeks before some of these marginal supplies can be edged out again (e.g. jet-diesel blending with US stocks still high).

• Sikka barrels pointing East and additional Chinese material likely to set Sing spd on a downward relative path.

• Tail risk obviously is the India-Russia tale.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.