Signal Brief: Infrastructure risk might obscure Hormuz risk within days

Cross-Barrel Signal Brief: Infrastructure risk might obscure Hormuz risk within days

• The market wants evidence that Hormuz can get moving again. But as time passes, Hormuz risk may be surpassed by general infrastructure risk in the region. Fujairah terminal came under attack today, Qatar condy & GTL is at risk, there are some reports of Kirkuk outages, and one large refinery has been hit.
• We are only on day 4 of the war. Even if the Straits re-open the market may replace one worry with another. Meanwhile, CPC terminal is one to watch.
• Natgas prices are already implying a need to incrementally pull in fuel oil and crude into powergen where possible globally.
• Ullage is also now coming into the conversation; there are reports that there are mere days left before certain terminals hit tank tops, but this could be a wider problem within days around the Middle East.
• Refiners have to make procurement decisions. Many major economies hold months of net import protection (products/crude). US, Europe, China, South Korea, Japan can buffer for a while but watch out for force majeure announcements from Asian refiners if AG supply issues mount or are maintained. We are seeing wild East/West product swings in favour of Asia.

For deeper market intelligence, daily commentaries, and expert insight, access Sparta Knowledge with a free 30-day trial: https://signup.sparta.app/