Short-term pain before high sulphur shines again?

27 June 2025 Time to read:  minutes

Pricing

The war is over and we will now have peace forever! Or so they say… I won’t write too much on geopolitics here but the market has seemingly taken it as a sign that all uncertainty is now cleared out from the system. However, we in this business must remember that warfare is always non-linear and fat tails are a feature, not an exception.

The last 2 weeks have seen drastic change in HSFO pricing. Physical premium went from Mops + 14 to now essentially +1-2, now back to +3-4.

I’m repeating what I said in my previous piece but the fuel oil market in particular has the tendency to engage strongly in positive feedback loops and overextend very quickly in one direction before flipping back with equal force.

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Hoa brings extensive experience, having led fuel oil analysis at Trafigura and worked across crude, diesel, and APAC power markets. Hoa now leads the development of Sparta’s forward-looking tools for fuel oil and feedstocks.

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