Real tightness in East Asian diesel and whilst it feels more marginal in US and EU, we still maintain a bullish view
Commentary summary:
– Middle East diesel still points East whilst the USGC TA arb is marginally closed.
– Singapore diesel spreads and cracks continue to gain whilst the gains in HO and ICE GO are more limited. Jet continues to struggle.
– Chinese diesel exports still limited but Russian ones are at the highest level since July 2024.
– We remain bullish diesel but expect to remain quite rangebound until we see the real effect of global turnarounds in Q1.
Singapore diesel spreads and cracks have maintained their upward momentum at the start of 2025, underpinned by persistently low Chinese diesel exports.
James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.
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