RBOB complex holds firm while European and Asian market collapse

Commentary summary:

• The Singapore complex led the gasoline market decline, falling into contango until Q2 2025, followed closely by a bearish Europe.  

• USGC remains the cheapest origin for exports in the Atlantic basin despite TA uptick, there is room to further upside potential. 

• European gasoline blending suffers due to loss of outlets in both sides of Suez, so the market is likely to remain trending lower. 

• Gas-nap returns to a downward trend, reaching annual lows for contracts remaining in 2024. 

The last sessions have been marked by a strong correction in crude, with oil prices down nearly $5 a barrel after Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend spared energy infrastructure. Despite the major correction in crude, we have seen the gasoline market correcting downward over the past four sessions, with the SING complex being the most bearish, closely followed by the European market. The same movement has been felt on timespreads, where the RBOB market is the only one unaffected so far. 

Jorge Molinero is a Commodity Owner at Sparta. Starting his career as a financial analyst with BBVA, Jorge quickly transitioned to market intelligence within the energy sector, spending 4 years as a naphtha analyst with Repsol before joining Sparta in early 2023.

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