Q4 Oil Outlook: Glut, Refinery Bottlenecks, and Trades Poised to Win
Q4 Oil Outlook: Glut, Refinery Bottlenecks, and Trades Poised to Win
On October 22nd, Sparta experts Neil Crosby, Philip Jones-Lux, Jorge Molinero, and James Noel-Beswick unpacked the key trends shaping the oil markets. They discussed how traders are interpreting market signals as the market remains hesitant to price deep contango, onshore OECD inventories stay stable, and E/W pricing points to generally healthy supply. The team also explored why Brent is expected to stay relatively weak versus Dubai through the quarter, and why WTI/Brent is likely to hold at wider levels than seen in H1, reflecting a comfortably long market.
Key Takeaways:
> E/W oil pricing is mostly telling us about relatively healthy supply in the key short markets, with some exceptions.
> Brent on average should stay relatively weak vs Dubai this quarter, depending of course on how geopolitics plays out.
> WTI/Brent is liable to stay at relatively wider levels than we have seen over H1, assuming the market really is long as seems to be the case.
Speakers:
Philip Jones-Lux – Senior Analyst: Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets
Neil Crosby – AVP Oil Analytics: Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication.
Jorge Molinero – Commodity Owner: Jorge Molinero is Commodity Owner at Sparta. Starting his career as a financial analyst with BBVA, Jorge quickly transitioned to market intelligence within the energy sector, spending 4 years as a naphtha analyst with Repsol before joining Sparta in early 2023.
James Noel-Beswick – Commodity Owner: James Noel-Beswick is Commodity Owner for Sparta. Before joining Sparta, James worked as an analyst for likes of BP and Shell and leads our continued development of the distillate product vertical.
About Sparta CommoditiesSparta is a leading provider of real-time market intelligence and analytics for global commodity traders. The company delivers actionable insights, price transparency, and data-driven decision-making tools, empowering traders to stay ahead in fast-moving markets. Sparta serves a diverse client base, from independent traders to multinational corporations.
Learn more at www.spartacommodities.com.
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