Prompt mogas less affected, but summer increasingly likely to be strong

Commentary summary:

• Prices are rallying hard today following a slower start to the week, but prompt gasoline (rightly) being left behind by both naphtha and distillates

• E/W moves also highlight now the need to pull barrels from west to East, or at least to cover shorts in SAF and EAFR. A positive March E/W is even making ARA and USGC competitive into SE Asia destinations for prompt loaders.

• It is impossible to say anything too definitive on arb levels just yet, however, with freight assessments still extremely volatile. Shipbrokers are reporting values ranging wildly through the day, making assessments difficult to lock down.

• Overall, it is clear that the sentiment currently is building towards a prolonged impact on infrastructure across both crude and products supply. With tanks being emptied in the prompt to cover these shortfalls, Atlantic Basin summer gasoline cracks and spreads likely have further upside even if/when the dust settles.

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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