Podcast: Sanctions rally! But the devil is in the detail
23 October 2025
Time to read: minutes
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, hosts Rachel Williams, Phil Jones-Lux, and Neil discuss the seismic shifts in the oil market triggered by overnight news of U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, impacting Russian oil flows. They unpack the potential ramifications for global crude supply, particularly for India and China, while highlighting the uncertainty of President Trump’s flip-flopping policies and their effect on market sentiment. The episode also touches on JODI data revealing surprising OECD stock builds, European refinery dynamics, and the strength in clean product cracks, offering traders a snapshot of key market signals amidst geopolitical volatility.
Key Takeaways:
- Risk rally has most legs in Dubai as Indian refiners plan to react immediately with trade deals on the line.
- E/W spreads rally in favour of key short markets. Naphtha arbs East remain wide open.
European diesel now faces multiple risks to imports, at least on paper. - Gasoline supply risk is likely greater in the East, but prices rallied most in the West so far.
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