Podcast: Oil at War: Sparta live podcast

In this emergency episode, the team unpacks the fast moving market impact of the Iran conflict, focusing on how disruptions are showing up first through shipping and insurance, then cascading into crude and refined products.

> A supply gap is already forming. Around ~2m b/d could be offline even if Hormuz reopened today.

> Freight froze. The global market was initially paralyzed, but activity is picking up in regions beyond the AG.

> Jet is the pressure point. Gulf exports are critical for global jet supply and it’s the hardest product to replace when runs are cut.

> Refiners are already slowing runs. Not panic, but an attempt to avoid shutdowns as crude supply uncertainty grows.

> The biggest moves are in spreads. Inter-regional and product spreads are reacting faster than flat price.

> Even a quick de-escalation leaves disruption. Infrastructure damage, shut-ins and delayed restarts could keep markets tight.

> One key question: is Brent in the low $80s underpricing the scale of physical disruption?