Paper improving slowly, physical still yet to follow

22 April 2025 Time to read:  minutes


Commentary summary:

• Physical premiums in Houston moved higher on arb blending activity and a supportive inventory situation, but ARA premiums continue to flatline and Singapore heads lower

• TA Arb has moved up slightly on paper, but closed further on the physical side as TC2 recovered slightly and RBOB sales prices ticked lower

• Pull on ARA components for May now looks a little softer than before. E5 blend margins are very closed, and E10 blender margins just about unworkable, whilst arb opportunities are becoming more limited (Montreal being open from ARA being the unusual exception)

• Sg92 spreads are rallying, but component premiums are being left behind and no significant change is observed in arb econs, pointing to expectations of supply-side tightness as regional turnarounds hit a seasonal peak in May

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Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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