North Sea still to come under pressure; Aramco OSP cuts target China
9 December 2024
Time to read: minutes
Commentary summary:
- WTI (Afras) and Black Sea crudes look less competitive against Forties, but Forties itself still undercut by Med and even WAF.
- EFS tradind down to $1/bbl, but many light European crudes look uncompetitive to Asia nonetheless. More reason to see the European market cool.
- TI/Brent to narrow to cool marginal flows to NWE following weeks of cheap landed WTI Afras into NWE.
- OSP cuts put Arab Light into a competitive position in Far East, ahead of the February cycle where there is anticipation of strong Chinese buying.
Flat price cared very little for OPEC+ decision-making. The market required something stronger to tighten up the notional long 2025 liquids balance (assumed without more OPEC+ barrels).
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