Naphtha market outlook for 2025

Commentary Summary:

– Cracks surged throughout 2024, recovering to levels closer to historical averages.

– Asian naphtha stocks in October hit their lowest levels in 8 years.

– East-West spreads recovered steadily in 2024, entering Q1 2025 trading around the historical average.

– Gas-nap spreads normalized during 2024, moving away from record highs seen since 2022.

– More petrochemical plant closures in Europe are expected for 2025, threatening western demand numbers.

During the first quarter of the year, values in both Europe and Asia traded near -$10/mt, but a strong and sustained upward trend has brought them closer to historical averages.

Jorge Molinero is a Commodity Owner at Sparta. Starting his career as a financial analyst with BBVA, Jorge quickly transitioned to market intelligence within the energy sector, spending 4 years as a naphtha analyst with Repsol before joining Sparta in early 2023.

Sparta is a live, market intelligence and forecasting platform that enables oil traders, refiners, banks, hedge funds and wholesalers to have access to real-time and global actionable insights to capture market opportunities before others.

To find out how Sparta can allow you to make smarter trading decisions, faster, contact us for a demonstration at sales@spartacommodites.com