Mogas feels balanced as supply returns but demand holds steady

Commentary summary:

• Gasoline markets have entered November in balance, with Dec/Jan spreads far less tight than Nov/Dec priced and both blend and arb signals broadly neutral.

• European supply is returning as Pernis restarts and Antwerp return nears, likely closing E5 blend margin and pressuring E10 margin as FCC utilisation set to rise.

• U.S. data remain noisy, but underlying balances are adequate — PADD 2 and 3 inventories are low, yet Gulf Coast pricing shows little concern.

• The WAF arb is open and late-Nov/Dec ARA loaders look workable into Africa, while Dangote’s will-they-won’t-they keeps market on its toes for timing WAF arbs.

The gasoline market has entered November on far more balanced footing than we saw at the end of October. Dec/Jan spreads are starting the month considerably less tight than Nov/Dec did, helped by a bout of profit-taking into month-end and focus shifting to returning regional supply.

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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