Mogas drifting lower as eyes turn to returning supply

Commentary summary:

• Timespreads remain near their seasonal highs as the European and Asian markets remain tight on turnarounds

• Prompt E5 blend margins flirting with being open – as well as the return of Dangote’s RFCC – have helped EBOB find a ceiling

• Relative arbs into the Atlantic Basin were favouring ARA thanks to high TC14 and a bullish move on TA Arb, but TC14’s correction lower will now help to pile on pressure to EBOB

• In the East, whilst the market has largely been supported into Q4 on the back of RFCC outages, a strong European market closing off the threat from the West, and a workable transpacific arb, reports of a recent uptick in Chinese outflows could put a damper on further strength

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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