Middle East oil exports push tanker costs to 6-year-high amid threat of US-Iran war

June Goh

Senior Oil Market Analyst

24 February 2026 Time to read: minutes

“VLCC freight rates have seen many positive fundamental drivers, starting with Venezuela barrels moving on legitimate freight vs a dark fleet before, increased OPEC+ production and healthy crude demand from refineries, particularly from India, which has moved from Russian to Middle Eastern barrels,” said June Goh, a senior analyst at Sparta Commodities.

However, Sparta’s Goh said: “At some point, expensive freight will hit refining profitability and could be the trigger to reduce demand for the fleet.”

Reuters, February 24, 2026 – Middle East crude exports have surged above 19 million bpd, the highest since April 2020, driving VLCC spot rates above $170,000 per day as legitimate Venezuelan flows, higher OPEC+ output and stronger Indian demand for Middle Eastern barrels tighten tonnage, according to Sparta’s June Goh. With rates repricing quickly on perceived US Iran risk and war-risk premiums in focus, she flags likely spillover into Suezmax and Aframax markets, though warns that at these freight levels refining margins will come under pressure, potentially curbing tanker demand if costs remain elevated.

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Middle East oil exports push tanker costs to 6-year-high amid threat of US-Iran war

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