Many moving parts, lots of uncertainty

Commentary summary:

• Too choppy an environment for fundamental trades though we see a softening ahead assuming India doesn’t flood into the spot crude market.

• Arb econs East remain largely unchanged, with a lot of WoS crude open.

• WTI Afras now look a little pricey in NWE, with TD25 moving from under to overvalued.

Equities and crude flat price were hit late last week following a combination of weak U.S. jobs data (and Trump’s remarkable proposal to dismiss the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief), and the sudden jolt of global tariffs. The last three months of U.S. job growth now mark the weakest stretch since the pandemic.

OPEC+ announced a 550 KBD production hike on Sunday, as expected, and maintained flexibility for future adjustments. The bigger driver on actual exports will probably come from the m-o-m decline in crude burn from core OPEC.