Limited end-Q3 upside case for ICE GO slowly building

Commentary summary:

• E/W looks a touch too wide with some arbs unusually strong/open from Asia to WoS.

• Asia is generally pricing to keep volume out/send volume West.

• USG arb is closed with TC14 and HOGO the problem. We don’t see much risk of either collapsing.

• There is a case for upside to European spreads pre-Sep expiry, and a bullish case for Sing vs Europe (E/W).

The more obvious signal to us for now is on E/W which widened to unusual levels once again over the last few days.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.