India shift showing signs of starting, but spreads are remarkably relaxed
Commentary summary:
• For now, though not mandated from the top, the legitimate spot crude market is seeing more Indian demand.
• Time-spreads are coming off even as the market starts to see evidence of the Indian shift, with macro fears and notions of peace in Ukraine partly at play.
Flat price and spreads are sending surprisingly bearish signals.
Of course, various non-oil considerations are at play including fears over the impact of tariffs, and the headlines flying over the last few days regarding a Trump and Putin meeting in the near term.
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