Freight turnarounds shift focus to RBOB

9 September 2025 Time to read:  minutes


Commentary summary:

• Gasoline cracks continue to go from strength to strength, but spreads have taken a breather

• The market remains undoubtedly tight, with components prices globally moving higher and finally narrowing many of the prompt blend margins

• TC14 normalisation and TC2 overvaluation have turned around the relative arbs outlook for the Atlantic Basin. Removing this pillar of support to ARA makes sense with Pernis, Dangote, and other European outages tightening that market currently.

• The US market looks, on balance, like the tighter side of the Atlantic in the coming weeks. Inventories in PADDs 1 & 2 are relatively tight, and the draw on barrels out of PADD-3 both domestically and waterborne in the coming weeks are set to be strong.

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Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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