Floor found for now but outlook remains subdued

Commentary summary:

• Narrowing gas-nap and slightly softer reformate premia fit with overall well-supplied European market

• August RBOB Arb, swing Atlantic Basin arbs, and marginally workable E10 blend margins all giving bearish prompt EBOB signals

• Delivered Chinese barrels into Singapore remain the largest factor weighing on Sg92 spreads. Sg92 blend margins are unusually workable, led by cheap Chinese 92r barrels as well as weak MTBE (also largely China-origin).

• Prompt load windows still point heavily to USGC origin over ARA for all swing LatAm arbs. Expect that this should be relatively bullish TC18, relatively bearish TC2.

• The picture is much less severe from late-August loaders onwards though, with seasonal price adjustments already making ARA more competitive from September onwards.

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

Sparta is a live, market intelligence and forecasting platform that enables oil traders, refiners, banks, hedge funds and wholesalers to have access to real-time and global actionable insights to capture market opportunities before others.

To find out how Sparta can allow you to make smarter trading decisions, faster, contact us for a demonstration at sales@spartacommodites.com