European resupply boosted short-term but risks shortfall if E/W gains further

Commentary summary:

• Cleaned-up VLCCs loading in AG/WCI are contributing to overall healthy volumes pointing to Europe

• TC14 continues to bring volatility to the USGC->NWE Arb, which moved into workable territory on Friday but closed again sharply yesterday as TC14 jumped 25WS.

• The latest price moves suggest that open arbs into Europe from the East over the last 6 weeks, and the occasional flash of workable arb from the USGC, are set to be sufficient to offset the planned (and unplanned) outages through September and into October.

Neil Crosby is an experienced energy market and commodity analyst, specialising in crude oil, oil products, biofuels, and carbon. With roles at OilX and JBC Energy, he has extensive expertise in global oil industry analysis, forecasting tools, bespoke research, and client communication. His focus on refining and petrochemicals underscores his specialisation.