EBOB not yet bearish short-term

Commentary summary:

• Wider gas-nap and a reasonably well-positioned arb picture for ARA should provide late TAR season support for components. Dangote’s return still uncertain but even if it comes back, the next maintenance is a matter of weeks away.

• Short-term TC2 vs TC14 picture should provide a further boon for ARA arbs.

• Sing market looks like it will hit a ceiling, basis econs into South and East Africa. Perhaps Sing 92 spreads can be maintained but only with a steady stream of bullish refinery news (as well as AG TARs).

• Naphtha has been generally bullish, but an already wide gas-nap may widen further, as cheap propane works its way into cracker feed in the East and refinery supply returns.

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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