Deal or no deal?

Commentary summary:

• Brent and WAF look to have hit a hard ceiling after physical diffs went on a recovery in Nov.

• Spot AG is trading lower but real test is beginning of the next trading cycle next week. Chinese import quotas may start to clear some floating barrels.

• WTI econs looking slightly better in Europe.

Market is in wait and see mode of course. We should get a naturally slightly better balance going as European and US refineries are ramping up, Al Zour will be back as well as other middle eastern refineries, and with Russia exporting a little less crude.

An attack on a CPC mooring could dent Kazakh exports too, this morning we are waiting on more damage assessments there but one mooring seems damaged for the long term and another is under maintenance, leaving 1 to operate normally (typically 2 are in use).