Dangote return puts another roadblock in the way of EBOB reaching summer strength

Commentary summary:

• Pricing continues to beg ARA blenders to buy and blend components. With reported inventories falling steadily, perhaps we can finally see some life breathed into components markets come June.

• Indonesia’s tenders excluding Singapore origin barrels for 2H 2025 have contributed to a bearish move in Sg92 in particular – although this downtick was anyway to be expected with capacity returning across Asia.

• Wider E/W has helped to improve EoS competitiveness into WAF and LatAm, but wider gas-nap in Europe and soft USGC component premia are countering this move so far

• A mogas bull case is becoming more and more difficult to make, at least for the remainder of this quarter, with utilisation expected to remain strong for the time being and nothing to suggest recent year’s octane story is to be repeated

Philip Jones-Lux is Senior Analyst for Sparta. Having worked with organisations such as JBC Energy and RP Global, Philip is a seasoned energy market analyst with expertise across the oil barrel and power markets

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