CPP Atlantic MR market report: UGSC MRs stabilizing, TC2 overvalued

22 October 2025 Time to read:  minutes

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USGC MR: Sparta FSD is now calling a bottom in TC14 spot rates after the sharp 80+ WS point decline. The model projects a rebound to 186 WS, having predicted recent volatility accurately.

LATAM remains the key demand outlet for USGC barrels. Spot gasoline arbs into San Jose and Esmeraldas are open, with November loaders also attractive. Diesel arbs into Santos and Buenos Aires are open for spot and November loadings, while gasoline into Rosarito is nearing workable levels for November and December. Diesel arbs into Europe remain closed, though the freight weakness has narrowed the margin to -$14/mt from -$29.50/mt last week. The EC Canada backhaul is also nearly open after the freight selloff.

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Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.

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