CPP Atlantic MR market report: Rangebound in the USGC and NWE

USGC MR: Spot TC14 fair value is now 130 WS, ~12 WS lower on mixed arb demand and 14 open MRs (7d, 12avg). Tonnage has sat above the 90-day trailing average since early September but should dip back below this week. The USGC–Rotterdam diesel arb for third-decade Sep loading needs TC14 at 122 WS to reopen — that’s the near-term pain threshold — while most arbs work closer to 130 WS. EC Canada diesel backhauls are wide open at +$14/mt, and October LATAM diesel margins are already positive, adding support. With sub-150 WS freight, arb demand is improving and should absorb excess tonnage. Oct TC14 paper value is closer to 140 WS, implying ~10 WS of downside from here, but likely only weakens a few points. Spot likely softens further before stabilizing and rebounding on improved arb margins.

Michael Ryan, our Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, brings over a decade of experience with Trafigura in the energy sector managing risk across products and regions before becoming Head of Risk for subsidiary Puma Energy. Michael then joined the Trafigura commercial team trading freight while successfully growing the physical fleet through strategic dealmaking.

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