Competitive WoS arbs pressuring Eastern grades
Commentary summary:
• Global refinery margins robust, but may head south with refiners returning from peak TA window
• WTI/Brent at sub -4$/bbl expected to narrow with WTI crude looking inexpensive almost everywhere
• CPC seen cheap enough to cover risks for potential supply disruption
• Competitive WoS arbs pressuring both MEG and regional SEA premia
• Forties landing cheaper than Azeri Light in the Med, upside imminent
Globally complex refining margins are looking robust, with strong FO and distillates crack, particularly in USGC and NWE benefitting from the heating oil demand from the cold snap.
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