Can the old star shine again in a snooze of a season?

#### Atlantic Basin Feedstock

Compared to 2 weeks ago, a combination of more expensive landed premiums for Iraqi straight-run and slightly weaker product cracks has compressed our proxy for rolling M+2 and forward secondary unit margins running Iraqi molecules in the USGC significantly.

We are now at roughly the same level we were at the start of July when we started seeing significantly higher East to West volumes.

Having said that, looking at both where VGO is trading and our aforementioned margin proxy, AG to USGC still looks pretty much workable and with still plentiful heavier molecules for now, I expect this to continue for a while until the AG starts their usual stocking up (or high sulphur prems shoot up further, or the Russian flow starts becoming a problem).

Hoa brings extensive experience, having led fuel oil analysis at Trafigura and worked across crude, diesel, and APAC power markets. Hoa now leads the development of Sparta’s forward-looking tools for fuel oil and feedstocks.

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